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The Ashes may offer a reason to cheer, but this series will also witness the Australian team celebrate more birthday parties than Timezone in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day prior to the team was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Older Squad Fascination Grows

For two or three years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this side and especially the bowling unit. It is rare to have nearly all player near a Test team being over 30, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a disadvantage: a Test team boasting a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

I've never felt this sure at the start of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any side knows that having a batch of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of similarly-timed departures, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a train that would certainly be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, change is here, imposed on this Australian squad in the space of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only sit out the opening match, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the balance experiences a much more significant change with two players absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the side. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Test matches coming on after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Debutant Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, partly English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the field on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

Sign up to The Spin

It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is striking is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what new injuries the first Test may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how complicated stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of going down early in tournaments and a pattern of initially small injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The back half of the contest may witness the primary four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might experience transition beginning much earlier than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane choice, but after that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this format is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the real unknown, and throughout it a chance for the opposing side. You can hear that change approaching, rolling round the corner, and England ain’t seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.