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Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when data suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|